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MMethodology

How we source

Every figure in an issue carries an as-of date and a named source. When a source is dark, the issue says DARK instead of guessing.


What we read

  • Permits and starts. Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation (TDLR) architectural-barrier filings for commercial work over $50,000; city permit portals where they are public (McAllen, Harlingen and others); U.S. Census Building Permits Survey for county single-family units.
  • Materials. Shelf prices at RGV Home Depot, Lowe's and McCoy's stores checked twice a week, plus national commodity prints for lumber, OSB, rebar, cement and diesel (EIA Gulf Coast).
  • Money and absorption. Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) MLS data, Zillow, Redfin, Freddie Mac mortgage rates, FRED and BLS local jobs.
  • Labor and capacity. On-record reports only: agency statements, court filings, named news reports. No rumor about a named jobsite.
  • Projects and competitors. Public filings, city agendas and named news reports across the Valley.

How an issue is made

Research runs Monday to Saturday and is written up each Sunday. Research is gathered and drafted with software agents. Before anything publishes, a separate audit checks every figure against its source, every date against the calendar, and every claim that something is missing against what was actually on file. If the audit fails, there is no issue that week, and the archive says so.

Status words

  • Verified. A public filing or on-site confirmation exists.
  • Announced / pre-dirt. Named in public, no permit or dirt yet.
  • Withdrawn. Cancelled or pulled on the record.
  • DARK. The source was not reachable or does not publish that number.
  • STALE. The newest available print is old; the age is stated.

Calls and grades

Each issue makes a small number of dated, falsifiable calls. When a call comes due it is graded HIT or MISS in the next issue and in the public data. Misses stay on the record.

What we do not do

We do not publish private bid prices, client names or any builder's internal costs. We do not project investment returns. Nothing here is a bid, an appraisal or legal, tax or investment advice.