Mortgage rate holds at 7.40% as new Valley commercial work tops $20 million

The 30 year mortgage rate held at 7.40% in the week of Oct 15, unchanged from the week before, while the McAllen metro still has 8.9 months of homes for sale on July figures. Eight commercial jobs registered from Oct 9 through Oct 15 at a combined listed cost of $20,739,280. The packages worth pricing now are a Brownsville warehouse whose state accessibility review is finished and a $4.7 million South Texas College renovation that cleared the same review by Oct 18. We would hold a new unsold spec home in Hidalgo County.

Permits and starts

Eight commercial jobs registered from Oct 9 through Oct 15 in Hidalgo and Cameron counties, listed at $20,739,280 combined. Frost Financial Center in Harlingen is the largest, $13 million and 7,093 square feet at 914 W. Tyler Avenue, with a listed start of Jan 21, 2027. South Texas College’s renovation at 2511 and 2517 Pecan Blvd is $4.7 million, with a listed start of Jan 1, 2027, and the state accessibility review was finished as of Oct 18.

Hidalgo and Cameron counties

New commercial registrations, by listed cost

Listed cost on registrations dated Oct 9 through Oct 15. Combined total $20,739,280.

Show data

Item	Value ($)
Frost Financial Center	$13M
South Texas College	$4.7M
ACCESS Esperanza Clinic	$1.6M
Levi's at La Plaza	$564K
Iglesia Bautista	$250K
Trevino's Auto Mart	$250K
Kiddie City expansion	$250K
Sculpt & Grace	$80K

That college job, a $250,000 church on Buddy Owens Boulevard, Trevino’s Auto Mart in Pharr, and an $80,000 studio in Weslaco had finished the accessibility review by Oct 18. ACCESS Esperanza Clinic in Mission is registered at $1,645,000, Levi’s at La Plaza Mall at $564,280, and a Brownsville daycare expansion at $250,000. The City of Brownsville’s Billy Mitchell warehouse sits outside that set. It is listed at $11 million and 140,000 square feet, with a finished review as of Oct 18 and a listed start of Dec 1. City building permits on these filings have not been published.

Hidalgo and Cameron counties

Listed start dates still ahead

Verified means the filing was rechecked on Oct 18. A listed start is the date on the filing.

verifiedannouncedthis week

Show data

Project	Start	End	Status
CareNow Mission	Oct 30, 2026	open	verified
Texano Apartments	Nov 16, 2026	open	verified
Billy Mitchell warehouse	Dec 1, 2026	open	verified
Weslaco ISD restrooms	Dec 1, 2026	open	verified
South Texas College	Jan 1, 2027	open	verified
ACCESS Esperanza Clinic	Jan 1, 2027	open	verified
Levi's at La Plaza	Jan 18, 2027	open	verified
Frost Financial Center	Jan 21, 2027	open	verified

Texano Apartments lists $10 million and a start of Nov 16, and the filing leaves the unit count blank. CareNow in Mission lists a $6.5 million renovation starting Oct 30. McAllen planning minutes posted this week record an approved conditional use for Russel Creek Phase II, 62 lots on 9.268 acres. Recording is the next public step. The Oct 20 agenda includes Whispers at Taylor, 38 lots on 10 acres.

Los Fresnos published an August report of 30 projects valued at $1,885,172. Hidalgo and Brownsville have not published residential permit counts for the week, so the spec hold rests on months of supply and the mortgage rate.

Weslaco’s impact fee ordinance has a second reading on Oct 20, at a staff figure of $581 for water and $776 for wastewater, $1,357 combined. A Weslaco bid should leave that fee out until the ordinance is adopted. The same night brings a first reading on the 2024 building codes, effective Jan 1, 2027 if adopted on that schedule, and a first reading on a unified development ordinance, with a second reading on the form for Nov 3. An application filed before that ordinance takes effect stays on the current code. Brownsville’s Oct 20 agenda also has a 54.397 acre single family rezone and a $1,322,190 signal package. Los Fresnos has a $206,348.50 drainage award still open that evening.

Materials

A 7/16 inch OSB sheet cost $14.51 at big box stores on Oct 15, up $1.03, or 7.6%, from $13.48, and a dry in package written off the old price needs the new one. The R 13 kraft roll on the same shelf was $28.97, down $2.90, or 9.1%, from $31.87.

Big box shelf, per piece

Sheathing, insulation, studs and rebar

Prices as of Oct 15. The OSB sheet is up $1.03 from $13.48. The insulation roll is down $2.90 from $31.87.

Show data

Item	Value ($)
OSB 7/16 sheet	$14.51
R 13 kraft roll	$28.97
2x4 stud	$3.98
#3 rebar, 20 ft	$7.38
Half inch drywall	$14.98

The 2x4 stud held at $3.98, number 3 rebar at $7.38 for a 20 foot stick, and half inch drywall at $14.98. Gulf Coast diesel was $5.809 a gallon in the week of Oct 12, a penny under $5.819. Haul tickets should use $5.809 until the next weekly figure, due Oct 20. Rockwool put 6% on mineral wool shipments on or after Jan 1, 2027, and Owens Corning put 6% on Thermafiber shipments on or after Jan 4. Construction materials prices were up 10.09% from a year earlier through August, so a contingency still belongs on a bid.

Labor

Build time for a general contractor on these packages stays 9 to 11 months. August unemployment was 6.3% in the McAllen metro and 6.5% in Brownsville Harlingen, against 4.4% in Texas. Those are August figures, and the metro release is Oct 28. No public note this week named a Valley worksite operation or a wage shock. Tuesday and Wednesday reached feels like temperatures of 106 to 111, and a South Padre beach hold runs until 7:00 in the morning on Oct 18.

Housing market

Freddie Mac’s national average for a 30 year fixed mortgage was 7.40% as of Oct 15, unchanged from 7.40% on Oct 8. A bid written this week, or a buyer payment quoted this week, should use 7.40%.

United States

30 year fixed mortgage rate

Weekly national average. Unchanged in the week of Oct 15.

Show data

Period	30 year
Sep 24	7.03%
Oct 1	7.28%
Oct 8	7.4%
Oct 15	7.4%

July figures put the McAllen metro at 8.9 months of supply and Brownsville Harlingen at 6.6, against 5.5 months in Texas on the same table. McAllen closed 405 sales that month at a median of $250,500, with 3,200 active listings, up 10.7%. Brownsville Harlingen closed 255 at a median of $255,000, with 1,560 listings, down 6.0%.

July figures

Months of supply

July figures. Texas, on the same table, is 5.5 months.

Show data

Item	Value (months)
McAllen metro	8.9 months
Brownsville metro	6.6 months
Texas	5.5 months

Zillow, counting through Aug 31, shows 3,628 homes for sale in the McAllen metro, up 8.88% from a year earlier, and 1,681 in Brownsville Harlingen, down 5.83%. Its median list price is $257,500 in McAllen, down 2.71%, and $289,703 in Brownsville, down 7.25%. July’s active listing count and Zillow’s August inventory are different tallies. The months figure to use is still July’s 8.9 in McAllen and 6.6 in Brownsville.

Hakes Brothers’ listed ceiling is $271,990. Hidalgo County records this week show a partial lien release on Taylor Creek Villages Lot 8, recorded Oct 7, and a warranty deed on Northwood Trails Lot 34, recorded Oct 9. Two closings show lots are moving, and they do not change the 8.9 month figure. South Texas Builders lists $115 to $120 a square foot in Hidalgo, construction only, and a finished house in Mission at $310,000. Finished homes advertised this week list from $250,000 to $290,000.

Major projects

Brownsville’s data center pause passed first reading on Oct 7, 7 to 0. Ordinance 2026/1826 would bar new high intensity data processing applications in the city and its extraterritorial jurisdiction for 90 days. The Oct 20 packet, posted Oct 16, sets second reading for Nov 4 and an effective date of Nov 5. The city attorney said no project in that class is under review. A filing still has a window through that second reading.

Edinburg’s commission approved more than 60 code amendments on Oct 6, reported Oct 13. Data centers there now need a special use permit, and only in industrial districts. The minimum single family lot goes to 3,500 square feet and 36 feet wide.

Brownsville opened a site for a SpaceX water agreement of up to $220 million, with $40 million escrowed on Sep 25. No contractor and no start date are named. A federal notice published Oct 14 keeps Boca Chica at up to 25 launches and 50 landings a year, while a study looks at up to 456 launches. Comments are due Nov 30. A separate notice, published Oct 6, covers an LNG export request at the Port of Matamoros, comments due Dec 7, and the company told local press it expects $1.2 billion of U.S. equipment, with exports targeted for 2031.

Tropical Gardens, about 158 units of rehabilitation, is on the Oct 20 agenda for bonds not to exceed $25 million. Harlingen’s medical district is a $97 million project on 71 acres, and the near term number to watch is an escrow request of $1.88 million. Edinburg held a ceremony on Oct 13 for the final phase of the Veterans Detention Pond, a bond funded drainage job. Raymondville has a $965,467 park grant announced Oct 13, with no contractor and no start named. Brownsville tabled its drainage fee on Oct 7, with the next date on Nov 4, so a stormwater assessment stays out of a bid until a fee ordinance is finished. In Rio Grande City, brush has been cleared on a 176 acre tract at Los Olmos Creek Village, and water and sewer still have to be extended.

Our view

We would hold a new unsold spec home in Hidalgo County, in the $250,000 to $290,000 band, for the next 60 days. The rate a buyer finances this week is 7.40%, and McAllen still has 8.9 months of supply on July figures. We are confident about the rate. The inventory number is from July, and Zillow’s August count points the same way. Brownsville Harlingen is tighter at 6.6 months and still above the statewide 5.5.

Before the Oct 20 votes, we would price Billy Mitchell, $11 million with a listed start of Dec 1, and the South Texas College renovation, $4.7 million with a listed start of Jan 1, 2027. Lock the OSB sheet at $14.51 if the dry in is in the next purchase, and leave Weslaco’s $1,357 out of the number until Tuesday night. A Brownsville data center crew can wait for the Nov 4 second reading unless planning says an application is already in. The spec hold and that commercial bid stand on different facts. Brownsville has not published fall commercial permit counts, so the commercial outlook rests on the pause, Frost’s $13 million filing, and the finished warehouse review. Build time stays 9 to 11 months, and haul tickets should track $5.809 until Oct 20.

Forecast record

Forecast	Due	Status
Hold a new unsold Hidalgo spec start in the $250,000 to $290,000 band	Dec 17	OPEN
Billy Mitchell warehouse review stays short of a groundbreaking	Dec 1	OPEN
South Texas College review stays short of a city building permit	Jan 1, 2027	OPEN
Frost Financial Center stays registered, with no contract award	Jan 21, 2027	OPEN
Gulf Coast diesel holds near $5.809 until the next weekly figure	Oct 20	OPEN
Big box OSB sheet holds at $14.51 until the next price check	Oct 20	OPEN
McAllen supply shows no meaningful tightening from 8.9 months	Dec 15	OPEN
Weslaco’s $1,357 fee stays out of bids until the ordinance is adopted	Oct 21	OPEN
Brownsville data center pause stays off the books before the Nov 4 second reading	Nov 4	OPEN
Brownsville stormwater fee stays tabled	Nov 18	OPEN

Our call that Gulf Coast diesel would hold near $5.819 until the next weekly figure was a HIT, with the week of Oct 12 at $5.809. The big box 2x4 stud held at $3.98 through Oct 15, a HIT, and Sol Suites was still a registered interior job with no groundbreaking on Oct 12, a HIT. Our call that McAllen supply would show no meaningful drop from the May reading of 9.1 months was a HIT, and the July figure is 8.9. Our call that El Pollo Loco in Weslaco would stay a registered filing was due Oct 18. The filing moved to a finished accessibility review, which is not a verified start, so we grade it a PUSH.

Housing market data: Zillow and Freddie Mac.