Mortgage rate falls to 7.24%, with one new commercial filing at $3.5 million

The 30 year mortgage rate fell to 7.24% in the week of Oct 29, down from 7.32% the week before. The only new commercial registration since Oct 25 is a shell in Mission at $3,500,000, nine units and 20,290 square feet, still registered, with a listed start of Jan 1, 2027. Eight other registrations changed status, and those listed costs sit outside the $3,500,000. September figures put the McAllen metro at 9.2 months of supply and Brownsville Harlingen at 6.5, so we would still hold a new unsold spec home in Hidalgo County.

Permits and starts

The Mission registration is at 911 Business Park Dr, private funds. It names no general contractor, and a city building permit remains unpublished. The package to price is the shell, the site concrete, and the unit build out, ahead of that January start.

Hidalgo and Cameron counties

Listed cost on this week's registrations

Mission is the only new registration. The other bars changed status this week.

Show data

Item	Value ($)
Harlingen financial branch	$13M
Mission commercial shell	$3.5M
South Padre beach access	$1.6M
Brownsville cement lab	$1.1M
McAllen imaging finish out	$980K
South Padre track and shade	$750K
Edinburg chargers	$600K
McAllen lab finish out	$264K
Edinburg swim school finish out	$230K

A financial branch in Harlingen, at 914 W. Tyler Avenue, $13,000,000 and 7,093 square feet, moved to a finished accessibility review, with a listed start of Jan 21, 2027. A September issued bank sits at a different address on East Tyler. A beach access walkover on South Padre Island, $1,600,000, moved to the same finished review, and its listed start of Oct 26 is already past. A cement lab in Brownsville, $1,100,000, shows a finished review and a listed start of Oct 5 already past.

Two finish outs at 1212 East Dove in McAllen share a listed start of Nov 2 and a finished accessibility review: imaging at $980,000 and 7,583 square feet, and a research lab at $264,297 and 1,811 square feet, combined listed cost $1,244,297. Ask McAllen inspections for the city permit before anyone mobilizes on Monday. A go kart track and shade structure on South Padre Island, at 33261 State Park Rd 100, moved to a finished review at $750,000, listed start Dec 1. Four chargers and switchgear in Edinburg moved to a finished review at $600,000, listed start March 1, 2027. A swim school finish out in Edinburg, $230,000, shows a finished review and a listed start of July 19 already past.

Hidalgo and Cameron counties

Listed start dates still ahead

Verified means the registration was rechecked this week. A listed start is the date on the registration.

verifiedannouncedthis week

Show data

Project	Start	End	Status
McAllen imaging finish out	Nov 2, 2026	open	verified
McAllen lab finish out	Nov 2, 2026	open	verified
South Padre track and shade	Dec 1, 2026	open	verified
Mission commercial shell	Jan 1, 2027	open	verified
Harlingen financial branch	Jan 21, 2027	open	verified
Edinburg chargers	Mar 1, 2027	open	verified
Alamo convenience store	May 10, 2027	open	verified

South Texas College’s sealed proposal on a $4.7 million renovation closed at 3:00 p.m., Central time, on Oct 26, and the status is still evaluation, with no contractor selected and no award dollar published. A convenience store and canopy in Alamo, $3,000,000, remains registered, with a listed start of May 10, 2027. Confirm the contracting owner before pricing it as a city job, because the registration names the city and also describes private funds on private land.

Harlingen’s September issued sheet, opened Oct 28, lists 32 new single dwellings at $6,603,011. October’s issued sheet has not been posted. September one unit permits, posted Oct 27, were 334 in Hidalgo County and 140 in Cameron County. All structure permits in the same release were 496 in the McAllen metro, up from 431 in August, and 233 in the Brownsville metro, up from 199. Residential permit counts for Hidalgo County cities, and Brownsville’s issued counts past July, remain unpublished.

Weslaco takes a second and final reading Tuesday, Nov 3, at 5:00 p.m. on ordinance 2026/39, the unified development code, and the same agenda recommends a hangar award capped at $4,318,463. Brownsville meets the same evening at 5:00 p.m. for a Dennet Road change order of $473,179.50, taking a contract to $3,672,289.50, and for a second and final reading on 54.397 acres of single family district at 1001 Military Highway. No developer is named on that acreage.

Wednesday, Nov 4, Brownsville takes up a 90 day data center moratorium on second reading, with warehouse, manufacturing, office, and residential uses outside the draft. The same agenda has a tax increment zone of about 1,021 acres, a plan for about 3,367 residential units and about $210.6 million of public infrastructure, and a staff memo near $261.1 million. Harlingen has a rezone of 18.7879 acres on second reading. Edinburg meets at 6:00 p.m. on a development agreement at 1815 W. Owassa Road, 0.91 acres and 16.71 acres, with no lot count.

Materials

The producer price index for construction materials stood at 378.610 in September, up 11.03% from a year earlier, so a contingency still belongs on a bid.

Gulf Coast diesel was $5.951 a gallon in the week of Oct 26, up 4.8 cents from $5.903. A hauling quote built on the prior week should move to $5.951. The next weekly figure is due Tuesday, Nov 3. Gulf Coast regular gasoline was $3.702 that same week, down from $3.784. Hauling costs follow the diesel price.

Big box shelf, per piece

Sheathing, studs, rebar and drywall

Prices as of Oct 29. All five were unchanged from Oct 27.

Show data

Item	Value ($)
OSB 7/16 sheet	$14.51
R 13 roll	$28.97
2x4 stud	$3.98
No. 3 rebar, 20 ft	$7.38
Half inch drywall	$14.98

A 7/16 inch oriented strand board sheet was $14.51 at big box stores on Oct 29, unchanged from Oct 27, and the 2x4 stud was $3.98. An 8 inch concrete block was $2.37, so confirm it on the pallet before a foundation bid. A duty that took effect Oct 30 can reach Canadian flooring, vinyl floor, and shaped trim, depending on the item, while framing lumber, oriented strand board, cement, gypsum board, rebar, and copper sit outside that list. Stud letters name an increase and give no percent, two of them effective Nov 1. Ask the yard for the stud sheet before a package ships on or after Sunday.

Labor

Build time stays 9 to 11 months. September unemployment was 5.6% in the McAllen metro, down from 6.3% in August, and 5.9% in Brownsville Harlingen, down from 6.4%. August payroll, the latest trade count, shows McAllen construction employment at 9.9 thousand, up 2.1% from a year earlier, and Brownsville Harlingen construction at 3.6 thousand, down 5.3%. Cameron crews follow that payroll drop.

No public note this week named a Valley worksite operation or a wage change. The Brownsville and Matamoros bridge and Gateway reopened Thursday afternoon, Oct 29. Harlingen turned down a county drainage agreement on Oct 21, and a $7 million canal widening outside the city limits stays off a city bid list.

Housing market

Freddie Mac’s national average for a 30 year fixed mortgage was 7.24% as of Oct 29, down from 7.32% on Oct 22. A bid written this week, or a buyer payment quoted this week, should use 7.24%. The next weekly figure is due Nov 5.

United States

30 year fixed mortgage rate

Weekly national average. Down from 7.32% in the week of Oct 22.

Show data

Period	30 year
Oct 1	7.28%
Oct 8	7.4%
Oct 15	7.4%
Oct 22	7.32%
Oct 29	7.24%

September figures put the McAllen metro at 9.2 months of supply and Brownsville Harlingen at 6.5. McAllen closed 333 sales that month, down 7.76% from a year earlier, at a median of $235,000, with 3,301 active listings. Brownsville Harlingen closed 230 sales, flat from a year earlier, at a median of $265,000, with 1,526 active listings. Those September figures are the latest available.

Rio Grande Valley metros

Months of supply

September figures, the latest available.

Show data

Item	Value (months)
McAllen metro	9.2 months
Brownsville Harlingen metro	6.5 months

Zillow, counting through Aug 31, shows 3,628 homes for sale in the McAllen metro, up 8.88% from a year earlier, and 1,681 in Brownsville Harlingen, down 5.83%. Median list price was $257,500 in McAllen and $289,703 in Brownsville.

Hakes Brothers’ highest listed price remains $271,990. A McAllen listing at 3601 Whetstone asks $260,013 on 1,780 square feet, about $146.07 a foot, $10,000 under a crossed out price of $270,013. Confirm the year and the live price before holding a crew for that address.

Major projects

A local story dates a groundbreaking to Oct 29 on a community resource center at 10187 Carmen Avila Road in Edinburg, about $9.5 million and about 30,000 square feet, on a schedule of about 14 months. No contractor is named, and a pour has not been confirmed. McAllen’s city hall has a $50 million budget and a schematic of 110,700 square feet, with a concrete substructure chosen over steel, and the next hire is a construction manager at risk.

A charter network is planning an estimated $94 million across campuses in Pharr, Alamo, and Mission, with a first phase estimated at $28 million and openings aimed at 2027. Brownsville commissioners told staff on Oct 20 to start notices for $27 million in certificates of obligation, with a December vote after two public notices. A 45 unit apartment at 1400 Palm Blvd has not broken ground. A Tuesday speech put 34 active subdivisions and more than 30,000 planned units on Brownsville over five to seven years. That total comes from the speech and has not been checked against a published list. In Edinburg, a 3.5 acre detention pond at Edinburg North High School that was left out of an earlier $1.7 million drainage project is being studied as a future phase, as of an Oct 27 school board meeting, with no dollar figure and no bid date.

Our view

We would hold a new unsold spec home in Hidalgo County, in the $250,000 to $290,000 band, for the next 60 days, and price any pour or frame that already has a buyer as a buyer’s market against 9.2 months and 7.24%. We are confident about the rate. The inventory number is the September figure, the latest available.

Monday morning is the time to ask McAllen inspections about the two finish outs at 1212 East Dove before anyone treats Nov 2 as a mobilization date. Tuesday evening brings Weslaco’s development code vote and the hangar recommendation, plus Brownsville’s Dennet Road change order. Wednesday is the data center second reading. Hauling quotes move to $5.951, the oriented strand board sheet stays at $14.51, and a material contingency remains warranted after the September construction price increase of 11.03%. Build time stays 9 to 11 months.

Forecast record

Forecast	Due	Status
Hold a new unsold Hidalgo spec in the $250,000 to $290,000 band	Dec 24	OPEN
McAllen finish outs at 1212 East Dove: city permit still unpublished ahead of the Nov 2 listed start	Nov 9	OPEN
Therapy renovation in Harlingen stays registered, short of a groundbreaking	Dec 1	OPEN
McAllen supply shows no meaningful tightening from 8.9 months	Dec 22	OPEN
Weslaco’s $1,357 fee stays out of bids until the ordinance is adopted	Nov 10	OPEN
Convenience store in Alamo stays off a city job price until the owner line is clear	Nov 15	OPEN
Brownsville data center pause awaits the Nov 4 second reading	Nov 4	OPEN
Mission commercial shell stays registered, listed start Jan 1	Jan 8, 2027	OPEN
Gulf Coast diesel holds near $5.951 until the next weekly figure	Nov 3	OPEN
Big box OSB sheet holds at $14.51 until the next price check	Nov 3	OPEN
McAllen supply shows no rescue from 9.2 months	Dec 31	OPEN
Weslaco ordinance 2026/39 awaits the Tuesday vote	Nov 4	OPEN
Weslaco hangar recommendation, capped at $4,318,463, awaits the Tuesday vote	Nov 4	OPEN
Harlingen financial branch, finished accessibility review, awaits a contract	Jan 21, 2027	OPEN

South Texas College’s Oct 26 bid stayed a bid date, short of a construction start, a HIT. The proposal closed at 3:00 p.m., Central time, and the status on Oct 31 was still evaluation, with no contractor selected. Our call that Gulf Coast diesel would hold near $5.903 until the next weekly figure was a MISS. The week of Oct 26 came in at $5.951, up 4.8 cents. The big box oriented strand board sheet held at $14.51 through Oct 29, a HIT. The quarter’s hold on a new unsold Hidalgo spec held through Nov 1, a HIT. A financial branch in Harlingen left registered status for a finished accessibility review, so the call that it would stay registered was a MISS.

Housing market data: Zillow and Freddie Mac.