---
title: "Mortgage rate climbs to 7.40% as Hakes cuts unsold Valley homes"
description: "The 30-year rate rose to 7.40% from 7.28%. McAllen still has 8.9 months of supply, and Hakes is advertising 5.25%."
url: "https://fronterasignal.com/issues/2026-w41/"
lang: "en-US"
---

Oct 11, 2026  
Issue 4 · Week 41 of 2026

[Leer en español](https://fronterasignal.com/es/issues/2026-w41/)

[Weekly issue](https://fronterasignal.com/archive/) · Issue 4 · Week 41 of 2026

# Mortgage rate climbs to 7.40% as Hakes cuts unsold Valley homes

[Frontera Signal](https://fronterasignal.com/about/) · Oct 11, 2026 Data as of Oct 11, 2026

The 30 year rate rose to 7.40% from 7.28%. McAllen still has 8.9 months of supply, and Hakes is advertising 5.25%.

Key figures

| Key figures | Value | Date and source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 30 year mortgage rate▲ Week of Oct 8 · prior week 7.28% | 7.40% | Oct 8, 2026 · Freddie Mac |
| McAllen months of supplyJuly 2026 · statewide 5.5 | 8.9 | July 2026 · Frontera Signal |
| Gulf Coast diesel, per gallon▼ Week of Oct 5 · prior week $5.955 | $5.819 | Oct 5, 2026 · Frontera Signal |
| New commercial registrations14 registrations · Hidalgo and Cameron | $33,549,898 | Oct 9, 2026 · Frontera Signal |

The national 30 year mortgage rate rose to 7.40% in the week of Oct 8, from 7.28% a week earlier and 6.30% a year ago. It arrived in a Valley that already had homes waiting. July figures put the McAllen metro at 8.9 months of supply and Brownsville Harlingen at 6.6, against 5.5 months for Texas.

Hakes Brothers is meeting that market with price cuts and a cheaper loan. Nineteen of 20 quick move in listings show a reduction, the largest $36,613, on an Edinburg house now asking $289,990. The builder is advertising 5.25% fixed on government backed FHA and VA loans for contracts written through Dec 28. A new unsold house in Hidalgo County is a bet that a buyer will pay 7.40% rather than take one of those cuts.

## Permits and starts

City counts of new houses in Hidalgo County and in Brownsville went unpublished again this week. The work on the record is commercial. Fourteen registrations in the two counties since Oct 4 list a combined cost of $33,549,898. A Willacy County data hall at $471.8 million sits outside that total.

The largest new registration is an $11 million, 140,000 square foot warehouse at 1400 Billy Mitchell Boulevard in Brownsville, listed to start Dec 1 on land described as city owned. Next is Texano Apartments in the city of Hidalgo, $10 million for two three story wood buildings at Texano Drive and South 15th Street, listed to start Nov 16. Texano was still registered on Oct 9, and the warehouse was registered at the last check on Oct 5. Neither names a general contractor, and no city permit is confirmed for either.

Hidalgo and Cameron counties

### Largest new commercial registrations, by listed cost

Listed cost on registrations from Sep 29 through Oct 8. Smaller jobs sit in the $33,549,898 total and off this chart.

Frontera Signal · Oct 9, 2026

**Show data**

| Item | Value ($) |
| --- | --- |
| Billy Mitchell warehouse | $11M |
| Texano apartments | $10M |
| Weslaco ISD restrooms | $3.0M |
| Clear Choice finish out | $2.2M |
| Park West shell | $2.0M |
| SH 336 sidewalks | $1.8M |
| Foust Road cement lab | $1.1M |
| Military Highway shell | $1.0M |

Park West, a $2 million shell at 11201 North 10th in McAllen, listed an Oct 5 start. That date has passed, and an Oct 9 recheck showed the state registration at review complete, with no city permit confirmed. A $1.1 million cement lab at 3801 Foust Road in Brownsville was registered Oct 3 and remains registered.

Hidalgo and Cameron counties

### Listed start dates on rechecked registrations

Each date is the listed start on the state registration at the latest check, between Oct 5 and Oct 9.

verified announced this week

Frontera Signal · Oct 9, 2026

**Show data**

| Project | Start | End | Status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Park West shell | Oct 5, 2026 | open | verified |
| Sol Suites interior | Oct 5, 2026 | open | verified |
| Texano apartments | Nov 16, 2026 | open | verified |
| Laguna warehouse | Nov 18, 2026 | open | verified |
| Weslaco ISD restrooms | Dec 1, 2026 | open | verified |
| Clear Choice finish out | Dec 1, 2026 | open | verified |
| Billy Mitchell warehouse | Dec 1, 2026 | open | verified |
| Military Highway shell | Dec 1, 2026 | open | verified |

Sol Suites in McAllen, a $300,000 interior listed to start Oct 5, remains registered. The Weslaco restaurant registration has moved to review complete, and a city permit is still unconfirmed. McAllen’s planning commission met Oct 6. The newest minutes on the city site are still from Sep 8, and Grove Lane’s second reading that day has yet to appear in the city’s highlights. Brownsville city offices are closed Monday, Oct 12.

Brownsville voters decide Proposition N on Nov 3, with early voting from Oct 11 through Oct 30. The posted text would cover city contracts over $1,000,001, require a 10 hour OSHA safety card before an on site worker starts, and ask for a written log of a good faith local hire effort. Budget that paperwork if you price that class of city work after the election. The question is still on the ballot. Hidalgo County crews are in the right of way off East Crockett Avenue, behind Salinas Elementary in Alamo, on a trail stretch local press was told would finish in spring 2027, with no dollar published. The crews are the county’s own, so the fact for a nearby job is traffic through next spring.

## Materials

Gulf Coast retail diesel fell to $5.819 a gallon in the week of Oct 5, from $5.955 the week before. Reset haul and equipment fuel tickets to $5.819. The next weekly figure is due Oct 14.

Retail prices, per piece

### Studs, sheathing and rebar

Big box prices as of Oct 1. Local yard prices from the last check, on Sep 11.

Frontera Signal price check · Oct 1, 2026

**Show data**

| Item | Value ($) |
| --- | --- |
| Big box 2x4x8 | $3.98 |
| Local yard 2x4x8 | $3.49 |
| Big box OSB sheet | $13.48 |
| Big box #3 x 20 ft | $7.38 |
| Local yard #3 x 20 ft | $5.79 |

Big box lumber and block prices are still the Oct 1 figures, because the product pages could not be reopened this week. A 2x4x8 stud was $3.98, a 7/16 inch OSB panel was $13.48, a half inch drywall sheet was $14.98, and a 20 foot length of number 3 rebar was $7.38. The local yard, last checked Sep 11, was at $3.49 for the stud and $5.79 for the rebar. The last big box shingle bundle is $39.98 from Sep 24, and a local yard web line this week showed $44.99 on a different product.

Construction producer prices were up 10.09% in the year through August, the latest reading, so the concrete contingency stays. Armstrong is raising steel and aluminum ceiling grid 12%, trims included, on shipments from Nov 2. Studs, rebar, and wallboard sit outside that letter. Metal framing makers have named an increase with no percent attached, for shipments on or after Nov 1 or Nov 2, so get the supplier’s number before releasing that package.

## Labor

The McAllen metro had 9,900 construction jobs in August, up 2.1% over the year, while Brownsville Harlingen had 3,600, down 5.3%. A framing plan for Cameron County should follow the Cameron number. August unemployment stood at 6.3% in the McAllen metro and 6.5% in Brownsville Harlingen. We found no verified immigration enforcement action at a Valley construction site from Oct 3 through Oct 9. A house started now, on a 9 to 11 month build, delivers in spring or summer 2027.

Hidalgo County remains under a burn ban. Before a pour on FM 676, Mile 5, between Glasscock and Shary, check the barricade. Highway posts disagree on an Oct 8 start versus today, Oct 11, so concrete and lumber trucks cannot assume that segment is open.

## Housing market

Anyone quoting a buyer’s payment this week should use 7.40%, Freddie Mac’s national average for the week of Oct 8.

United States

### 30 year fixed mortgage rate

Weekly national average. Up to 7.40% in the week of Oct 8.

Freddie Mac · Oct 8, 2026

**Show data**

| Period | 30 year |
| --- | --- |
| Sep 17 | 6.95% |
| Sep 24 | 7.03% |
| Oct 1 | 7.28% |
| Oct 8 | 7.4% |

July figures are unchanged, and they still set the supply picture: 8.9 months in the McAllen metro, 6.6 in Brownsville Harlingen, and 5.5 statewide. Sales rose in both metros, to 405 in McAllen at a median of $250,500 and 255 in Brownsville Harlingen at $255,000. McAllen is loose, Brownsville is tighter, and the payroll drop there reads as slack on the commercial side.

Zillow’s August count points the same way, with 3,628 listings in McAllen, up 8.88%, and 1,681 in Brownsville, down 5.83%. Its typical value is $193,007 in McAllen and $209,484 in Brownsville.

Hakes Brothers listed community starts on Oct 9 from $213,990 at Las Cruces, in the Donna school district, to $271,990 at Heights at Riverbend II in Brownsville. Paloma Ranch in Harlingen lists $265,990.

Hakes Brothers communities

### Listed starting prices by community

Lowest listed price in each community, as of Oct 9.

Frontera Signal · Oct 9, 2026

**Show data**

| Item | Value ($) |
| --- | --- |
| Las Cruces | $214K |
| Monte Cielo | $225K |
| Taylor Creek | $249K |
| Alberta Heights | $251K |
| Northwood Trails | $254K |
| Paloma Ranch | $266K |
| Riverbend II | $272K |

Nineteen of 20 finished home listings show a cut, from $3,256 to $36,613. The largest is 316 West Roxland Street in Edinburg, now asking $289,990 against a previous figure of $326,603. Finished homes at Heights are listed under the $271,990 start, including one at $249,990, and the Las Cruces floor of $213,990 still stands.

The usable rate offer is 5.25% fixed on FHA and VA loans, a 5.613% annual percentage rate, through the builder’s preferred lender, for contracts written through Dec 28 and funded by Jan 27. The page headline still says up to $30,000 in options. The footnote limits that sum to to be built homes in three communities closing on or before Sep 30, and the year is missing, so read the footnote before matching the headline.

## Major projects

Brownsville gave first reading on Oct 7 to a pause on data center approvals. The city’s post says that reading leaves the pause off the books. Second reading is Nov 4 and needs a three fourths vote. If it passes, the 90 days would run from Nov 5 through Feb 3, inside the city and its outer jurisdiction. An application that needs to be in before Nov 5 still has that window, and a county site outside Brownsville would stay on its own track. Local press reported no data center permit since a July withdrawal, and reported that SpaceX receives no additional water under an agreement that can put up to $220 million into city water projects.

The same night, Brownsville created a drainage utility and tabled the fee, so the proposed charges of $3 and $6.25 stay out of a Brownsville number until a later vote writes one in. Signal work on International Boulevard is in a package of more than $17 million in public works contracts, with no contractor named. Bids for 12th Street signals were rejected.

JE Dunn and Alberici told local press they are leading grading, drainage, access, and utilities on the first phases of the $3.2 billion Port Alpha shipyard. No building permit for a manufacturing hall has been confirmed, and no contract dollars have been published. Willacy County’s Project Kati 2 lists $471.8 million, with a start date of Oct 8, the day after registration, and no contractor named. It sits outside the Brownsville pause.

## Our view

We would hold the next unsold foundation in Hidalgo County, above all in the $250,000 to $290,000 band, for the next 60 days. Buyers can wait out 7.40% when McAllen has 8.9 months of supply, and Hakes is already cutting finished homes while offering 5.25% through its own lender. We are confident in the rate for the week of Oct 8. The supply figures are July’s, and Zillow’s August listings point the same way.

A foundation already sold can still be poured inland, where the ground is dry, with the concrete contingency kept and the haul surcharge reset to $5.819. Check the Mile 5 barricade before the truck rolls, and note that Brownsville counters are closed Monday. We would hold Cameron framing crews at their current size, with construction employment there down 5.3%. Texano, at Texano Drive and South 15th, is the multifamily address to ask about once the registration moves. Sol Suites remains the near term interior in McAllen, and we would call the designer before pricing it.

## Forecast record

| Forecast | Due | Status |
| --- | --- | --- |
| No new unsold Hidalgo foundation in the $250,000 to $290,000 band for 60 days | Dec 10 | OPEN |
| Texano apartments stay registered, with no confirmed start | Nov 16 | OPEN |
| Park West shell stays at review complete, with no confirmed start | Oct 25 | OPEN |
| Gulf Coast diesel holds near $5.819 until the next weekly figure | Oct 14 | OPEN |
| The big box 2x4 at $3.98 remains the price until a new check | Oct 22 | OPEN |
| McAllen supply shows no meaningful tightening from 8.9 months | Dec 1 | OPEN |
| The Brownsville data center pause stays off the books through the Nov 4 reading | Nov 4 | OPEN |
| The Brownsville drainage fee stays tabled | Nov 18 | OPEN |
| The shipyard sitework quote produces no confirmed building permit | Dec 31 | OPEN |

Our diesel call was a MISS. We expected Gulf Coast diesel to hold near $5.955, and the week of Oct 5 came in at $5.819. The call that late September shells would stay without a confirmed start ends as a PUSH, because several remain registered and we did not recheck every address. Sol Suites is still registered, due Oct 12, and the Weslaco restaurant stands at review complete with no city permit confirmed, due Oct 18.

_Housing market data: Zillow and Freddie Mac._

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Cite as: Frontera Signal, “Mortgage rate climbs to 7.40% as Hakes cuts unsold Valley homes”, Oct 11, 2026. [https://fronterasignal.com/issues/2026-w41/](https://fronterasignal.com/issues/2026-w41/)